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Thursday, December 22, 2011
Mobile Nations Enterprise 01: Consumerization
Our podcast feed: Coming soon! Download directly: Audio | Video Subscribe in iTunes: Coming soon! Craig, Isaac, and Rene kick off the new Mobile Nations Enterprise show with an introduction and look at the consumerization of IT. Hosts Craig Johnston (@ibanyan) Isaac Kendall (@isaackendall Rene...
Monday, December 5, 2011
The Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle: A Story of Calculation ...
The Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle is complex and sometimes counterintuitive. Roger Garrison?s lecture on The Austrian Theory of the Trade Cycle is indispensable, and I was pleased to see that his lecture ?Keynes and Hayek: Head to Head? is also available on YouTube. Here, in a few words, is a brief summary of what the Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle entails.
Calculation: People appraise and bargain for goods and services in markets. Prices are the coordinators that tell people the most effective ways in which resources can be deployed. Interest rates are determined by the interaction of firms? demands for investable resources and households? willingness to save. Holding investment demand constant, changing interest rates indicate changes in households? preferences for future versus present consumption. A rising interest rate indicates a reduction in the supply of saving (and an increasing demand for present versus future consumption) while a falling interest rate indicates an increase in the supply of saving (and an increasing demand for future versus present consumption).
Suppose people decide to save more. They will reduce their present consumption in order to save more for future consumption. The prices of goods for immediate consumption will fall, and the prices of investment goods will rise. Wages will fall at the point of immediate consumption, but they will rise for people farther back in the structure of production.
How do people know what to produce? When I?m 64, I might want birthday greetings, bottles of wine, or both. Enter profits and losses. Profits and losses tell firms whether they are choosing wisely with respect to what they produce. Firms that correctly anticipate what best satisfies households? wants will be rewarded with profits while those that incorrectly anticipate what households want will be punished with losses. This is the essence of ?an economy working right,? to borrow from F.A. Hayek via Garrison.
Miscalculation: When the government manipulates the money supply, the market?s signals are distorted. In Tim Harford?s book The Undercover Economist, he points out that competitive markets produce a ?world of truth? in which prices reflect households? preferences and firms? costs of production. The Austrian theory gives us an example of a way in which prices are systematically lying. Entrepreneurs? and managers? appraisals are incorrect as a result of credit expansion. What looks like equilibrium isn?t, and the gap between real saving and the quantity of investable resources demanded is masked by new money. To use Professor Garrison?s term, the gap is ?papered over.?
Things look great during the boom phase of the business cycle because consumption and investment are both increasing. They are increasing to unsustainable levels, though: during the credit expansion, firms initiate investment projects that cannot be realized given household savings. The structure of production is fundamentally distorted as prices, interest rates, and wages do not reflect households? preferences. As credit expansion cannot continue forever without causing hyperinflation, miscalculations that led to malinvestments are eventually revealed.
Recalculation: If the economy is left to its own devices, miscalculations will be corrected and malinvestments will be corrected by a process of recalculation. Firms and households fix their mistakes, and resources are reallocated. Prices that are consistent with the economy?s underlying fundamentals of tastes, technology, and resource availability emerge and guide people toward what Arnold Kling has called ?patterns of sustainable specialization and trade.? In other words, physical capital, human capital, and social capital are invested in lines of production that do not compromise a society?s ability to provide for its future wants.
Note: I first saw ?recalculation? as a description of our current conditions in blog posts by Arnold Kling.
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Sunday, December 4, 2011
Neil Patrick Harris apologizes for slur on "Live!" (omg!)
LOS ANGELES (TheWrap.com) - You just know that Regis Philbin would never find himself in this kind of mess -- mainly because he probably doesn't know what a "tranny" is.
Neil Patrick Harris found himself in apology mode Friday, after catching flak for using the phrase "tranny" on Thursday's "Live! With Kelly."
"Truly sorry for saying the word 'tranny' on Live this week. Twice!" Harris wrote on his Twitter account. "Should have been more thoughtful. Didn't at all mean to offend."
Harris' gaffe came during his guest-hosting stint, during a segment with Science Bob, who introduced Harris and Kelly Ripa to the joys of sulfur hexafluoride, referred to as "helium's evil twin" by the visiting science expert.
Taking a huff and marveling at the voice-deepening properties of the substance, Harris busted out a Darth Vader impression. Then, recognizing how much he sounded like the "Silence of the Lambs" character Buffalo Bill, he intoned, "Put the lotion in the basket!"
As his voice returned to normal, Harris cracked, "I've never sounded more like a tranny in my life." (Presumably, Harris was referring to Buffalo Bill, not Darth Vader.)
The Gay and Lesbian Alliance Against Defamation lauded Harris's mea culpa, noting, "It's heartening to see a celebrity of Harris' stature recognize and apologize for using the slur in such a timely manner, and for greater media attention being paid to its use. Many people do not realize that the word "tr*nny" is one of the most hurtful and dehumanizing slurs that transgender people hear. Most transgender people associate that word with personal experiences of violence, hatred and derision."
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Saturday, December 3, 2011
Clinton challenges Myanmar to expand reforms
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, left, is greeted by Myanmar's President Thein Sein at the president's office in Naypyidaw, Myanmar Thursday, Dec, 1, 2011. (AP Photo/Vincent Thian)
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, left, is greeted by Myanmar's President Thein Sein at the president's office in Naypyidaw, Myanmar Thursday, Dec, 1, 2011. (AP Photo/Vincent Thian)
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton speaks during a press conference following meeting with Myanmar officials, including President Thein Sein, in Naypyidaw, Myanmar's administrative capital, Thursday, Dec. 1, 2011. (AP Photo/Saul Loeb, Pool)
Myanmar's President Thein Sein, left, meets with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton during a meeting at the President's Office in Naypyidaw, Myanmar Thursday, Dec. 1, 2011. (AP Photo/Saul Loeb, Pool)
Myanmar President Thein Sein, right, meets with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton during a meeting at the President's Office in Naypyidaw, Myanmar Thursday, Dec. 1, 2011. (AP Photo/Saul Loeb, Pool)
YANGON, Myanmar (AP) ? U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton on Thursday challenged the leaders of Myanmar to continue and expand upon recent reforms, calling for the release of all political prisoners, an end to violent campaigns against ethnic minorities and a breaking of military ties with North Korea.
"We believe that any political prisoner anywhere should be released," Clinton told reporters during the first visit to this long-isolated nation by the top U.S. diplomat in more than 50 years. "One political prisoner is one too many in our view."
Clinton made her comments ahead of a meeting with the most famous political prisoner of all, opposition leader and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, who was released last year after two decades of on-and-off imprisonment and has said she will run in upcoming elections. Clinton and Suu Kyi had a private one-on-one dinner on Thursday and were to see each other again more formally on Friday.
Meeting earlier Thursday with President Thein Sein and other senior government officials in the capital of Naypyidaw, Clinton offered a small package of rewards for steps it had already taken but made clear that more must be done and said the U.S. was not ready to lift sanctions on the country. She hand-delivered letters from President Barack Obama to Thein Sein and Suu Kyi in which Obama expressed hope that relations could further improve.
"I came to assess whether the time is right for a new chapter in our shared history," Clinton said, adding that the U.S. was ready to further improve relations with the civilian government in the Southeast Asian nation ? also known as Burma ? but only if it stays on the path of democratization.
In a series of modest first steps, she announced that Washington would allow Myanmar's participation in a U.S.-backed grouping of Mekong River countries; no longer block enhanced cooperation between the country and the International Monetary Fund; and support intensified U.N. health, microfinance and counternarcotics programs.
A senior U.S. official said Thein Sein had outlined his government's plans for reform in a 45-minute presentation in which he acknowledged that Myanmar lacked a recent tradition of democracy and openness. He asked for U.S. help in making the transition from military to full civilian rule, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe the private diplomatic exchange.
Clinton replied that she was visiting because the U.S. was "encouraged by the steps that you and your government have taken to provide for your people."
Yet, she also made clear that those steps must be consolidated and enlarged if the U.S. is to consider easing near-blanket economic sanctions that block almost all American commercial transactions with Myanmar. "While measures already taken may be unprecedented and certainly welcome, they are just a beginning," she told reporters.
"We're not at the point yet where we can consider lifting sanctions that we have in place because of our ongoing concerns about policies that have to be reversed," Clinton said. "But any steps that the government takes will be carefully considered and will be matched."
She called for the release of political prisoners and an end to brutal ethnic violence that has ravaged the nation for decades. She also warned the country's leadership to break suspected illicit military, nuclear and ballistic missile cooperation with North Korea that may violate U.N. sanctions. "Better relations with the United States will only be possible if the entire government respects the international consensus against the spread of nuclear weapons ... and we support the government's stated intention to sever military ties with North Korea," she said.
In his presentation, Thein Sein vowed that Myanmar would uphold its U.N. obligations with respect to North Korea, according to the senior U.S. official. He also told Clinton that Myanmar was actively considering signing a new agreement with the U.N. nuclear watchdog that would allow unfettered inspections of atomic sites in the country, the official said.
Nyan Win, a spokesman for Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy party, welcomed the U.S. package of rewards and said, "The incentives will help promote better relations and a better future for the country and I hope the government will expand its reform process."
Clinton rejected the idea that the U.S. outreach to Myanmar was partially motivated by the growing influence of China. "We are not viewing this in light of any competition with China," she said. "We are viewing it as an opportunity for us to re-engage here."
"We welcome positive constructive relations between China and her neighbors. We think that is in China's interest as well as in the neighborhood's interest," she said.
Recalling Obama's mention of "flickers of progress" in Myanmar when he announced that Clinton would visit the country, Clinton urged the leadership not to allow them to "be stamped out."
"It will be up to the leaders and the people to fan flickers of progress into flames of freedom that light the path toward a better future," she said. "That ? and nothing less ? is what it will take for us to turn a solitary visit into a lasting partnership."
Before dinner with Suu Kyi, Clinton toured the Shwedagon Pagoda, a 2,500-year-old Buddhist temple with a massive golden stupa.
Despite the historic nature of Clinton's visit, enthusiasm has been muted within Myanmar.
Chan Tun, a 91-year-old veteran politician and a retired ambassador to China, said: "This is a very critical visit because U.S. will understand Myanmar better through engagement. U.S. engagement will also help Myanmar's dependence on China."
But Clinton's presence has been overshadowed by the arrival Thursday of the prime minister of Belarus and his wife, to whom two large welcoming signs were erected at the airport and the road into the city. No such displays welcomed Clinton.
The Belarus Prime Minister made the front page of Thursday's edition of the government-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper. Clinton's visit was mentioned in a two-paragraph story on page 2.
Still, some in Myanmar welcomed the attention from the U.S. "I watched the arrival of Ms. Clinton on Myanmar TV last night," 35-year-old taxi driver Thein Zaw said. "I am very happy that Ms. Clinton is visiting our country because America knows our small country, whether it is good or bad."
___
Associated Press writer Aye Aye Win in Yangon contributed to this report.
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Video: Fundamentals vs. Fears
Discussing whether the market rally will continue in December, with Michael Yoshikami, YCMNET Advisors, and Rob Morgan, Fulcrum Securities.
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Source: http://video.msnbc.msn.com/cnbc/45512104/
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Friday, December 2, 2011
Tareq Salahi wants a date with Kate Gosselin
Could a new reality TV couple be in the works?
According to Access Hollywood Live?s Kit Hoover, the recently-single Tareq Salahi, formerly of Bravo?s ?Real Housewives of D.C.,? has a crush on Kate Gosselin.
VIEW THE PHOTOS: Top 10 Reality Romances Gone Wrong!
?Tareq Salahi e-mailed me personally,? Hoover revealed on Thursday?s show. ?He wants to be set up with Kate Gosselin.?
Hoover explained that Salahi is interested in the former TLC ?Kate Plus 8? star, who appeared on Access Hollywood Live on Tuesday.
?He said, ?Is she really single?? ? Hoover recounted.
VIEW THE PHOTOS: A Look Back: Jon & Kate Gosselin?s Family Photo Album
In his e-mail, Salahi wrote, ?Set us up if she is.?
And Hoover had a promise for Salahi, who is currently embroiled in a divorce with estranged wife Michaele, who left him in a very public way for Journey?s Neal Schon.
?Tareq, I?m totally on it,? Hoover said of trying to set him up with Gosselin.
VIEW THE PHOTOS: Kate Gosselin?s Sexy ?Dancing? Transformation
Do you think Salahi and Gosselin would make a good reality TV couple? Tell us on the Facebook page for our TV blog, The Clicker!
VIEW THE PHOTOS: Top 10 Reality Romances Gone Right
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Source: http://today.msnbc.msn.com/id/45512584/ns/today-entertainment/
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